Turkey’s Incursion Into Iraq

Reports today that Turkish troops chased Kurdish fighters into northern Iraq are worrisome but not unexpected. Turkey has never hidden its readiness to foil any attempts by Kurds on its side of the border to take advantage of the nominal independence status that Iraqi Kurdistan is enjoying to re-invigorate their fight for independence from Turkey.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ warning to Turkey last week for it not to invade northern Iraq may not have been in vain after all. Today’s reports indicate that Gates’ warning may not mean much to Turkey by way of deterrence. It doesn’t and may not constitute one. The reason being that Iraqi Kurds who are determined to assert their independence from Iraq someday soon will likely continue to extend a hand of support to their kinsmen across the border in Turkey. Kurdish desire for independence from the rest of Iraq and support for their kinsmen in Turkey will present the US with serious challenges that it may not be able to handle easily. The reasons being that on the one hand, the US cannot easily talk the Kurds in Iraq off their desire to assert their independence, and on yet the other hand, unless the Bush White House acts true to its established swashbuckling persona, sending US forces into northern Iraq and possibly into Turkey to neutralize the latter’s significant military presence will further complicate things for the US in the region. But only time will tell what will unfold in Iraq sequel to US invasion.