Pakistan's Dictator Buys Additional Insurance

It is sadly absurd that US analysts prefer to view the new nuclear reactor which Pakistan is building at the Khushab nuclear site, located 100 miles south, from its capital Islamabad solely in the context of the decades-old rivalry that exists between it and India. Granted that Pakistan is already a declared nuclear state, it does not require a sophisticated mindset to discern that the current upgrade in Pakistan’s nuclear capability although linked to the rivalry with India, has more to do with its dictator, Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s desire to make himself and his regime to remain relevant to US geopolitical calculations in that part of the world on the one hand. On yet the other hand, he wants to continue holding the US to ransom at this point in the War against Terrorism, WaT when his dictatorship is increasingly under a lot of pressure at home since he got rid of the chief justice a few months ago.

The dictator considers the recent nuclear pact that the US entered with India a slight given his cooperation in the WaT. The new nuclear endeavor is capable of producing enough weapons-grade plutonium for 50 additional bombs annually. He is intent on improving Pakistan’s nuclear bombs, no doubt. What will an impoverished country like Pakistan need so many nuclear bombs for?

The feeble request from the US earlier to Pakistan not to expand its nuclear capability is obviously being ignored, and the US is obviously unconcerned about Pakistan's quest for additional nuclear capability at a time when it blows hot and cold over Iran’s determination to acquire its own nuclear capability. The under laying logic that it is risky for the US to diminish support for the dictator might seem logical. This is in view of the claim that the US cannot afford to forsake the dictator for fear that if he goes, Pakistan might fall into the hands of Islamists. But the policy of standing firmly behind a dictator although completely in sync with the dictates of real politic, does not guarantee that the dictator will remain in power indefinitely. It’s at best a gamble that has high unraveling potentials.

The dictator is sufficiently savvy in his dealings with the US, which is why he keeps buying up additional insurance policy by adding to Pakistan’s nuclear capability. He seems to be succeeding. John Negroponte’s meeting with him last week is clear evidence of that. Only time will prove that even though the US may go along with dictator Musharraf for some distance, his dictatorship will most probably not have durable pay-offs to deliver to the US for the extensive aid and support it offers him and his regime.