The Hand Writing On the Wall

It’s interesting that the Bush White House has refused to see that the hand writing on the wall over its myopic foreign policy gamble in Pakistan clearly indicates a big failure. The pattern of the unfolding events since dictator Pervez Musharraf’s over-reach to get rid of the Chief Justice failed could not have been less clearer: the spontaneous mobilization of various strata of the Pakistani civil society led by the legal profession produced a groundswell that not only succeeded in reversing the dictator’s over-reach, but also emboldened the Supreme Court to void his extra-legal exile of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif sequel to his overthrow of his elected government in a coup eight years ago.

This clear pattern of events ought to have been sufficient cause for the US to appraise the situation of affairs in Pakistan more objectively. Such appraisal could have been sufficient pointer to imbue credence to the fact that Musharraf’s regime had slipped into that slippery slid of difficulty that often characterizes a declining dictatorship. Instead, the White House has preferred to embark on a gamble, which is using former Prime Minister Benizar Bhutto to broker a deal that could presumably save Musharraf and his regime. Well, it does not seems as that gamble is about to pay off at all. The court boycott that began yesterday across Pakistan in a renewed campaign by the legal profession to force Musharraf from power is yet another clear indication that the Pakistani civil society, led by the lawyers clearly has the upper hand in the unfolding power situation. In fact, the US gamble may have neutralized Bhutto’s perceived potential to remain relevant in the unfolding power situation.

There is no doubt now that Sharif will return to Pakistan. There is also no doubt that he might probably lead his party, the Pakistan Muslim League in a spirited mobilization to make life difficult if not impossible for any contraption of a government that may result from the US-Musharraf-Bhutto gamble. IkengaComments predicts that most if not all actions taken by Musharraf and his regime to gain the upper hand in the unfolding power situation in the country henceforth runs the risk of back-firing on the dictator. If the ultimate aim of US foreign policy in Pakistan is anything beyond perpetuating an intractably unstable status-quo ante, then the White House is headed for yet another foreign policy failure over there. The hand writing on the wall is so clear on that.