How Is the General Doing So Far?

Here at IkengaComments, our informed assessment has been that US support for Pakistan’s dictator, General Pervez Musharraf is a misguided gamble that has very high chances of unraveling in a manner which could shift US geopolitical calculations in that part of the world into a pitiful situation. Staking so much on the continuity of an individual, a dictator for that matter who is in power in such a precariously volatile society cannot but merit such a bleak assessment.

Mr. Musharraf’s travails since he sacked the Chief Justice have not fared that well. He has faced increasing open challenge to his regime from several sections of the Pakistani civil society ever since. If the US is less jittery about the opposition that lawyers and other notable members of the Pakistani civil society have mobilized against him in response to that singular action, the opposition that he is now facing from radical Islamists will be serious cause for worry for the Bush White House given the conviction that the end of his dictatorship will not be good for the success of the War on Terror, WoT.

The stand-off currently going on between his regime and a radical mosque in Islamabad, is not likely to unfold and end favorably for him. The opposition that his removal of the Chief Judge fanned could have emboldened the Islamists who are involved in this stand-off. The heavy gun shots fired at the aircraft he was flying in yesterday is a clear escalation of the uncertainty he is faced with. Knowing how dictators function, Musharraf will occupy himself henceforth with the task of survival. He will do that by using every trick at his disposal to manipulate the US for support even as he strives to suppress those who are opposed to his dictatorship in Pakistan. The US will be quite eager to aid his efforts to suppress the Islamists. But the unfortunate thing about that is that the General may not be quite willing to go after the Islamists in a decisive manner. The Islamists will make life increasingly difficult for him if they sense any shift in what may have been a secret pact between him and them. In other words, there is a clear risk in pressing the General to move decisively against the Islamists. On the other hand, if the status quo ante sustains, it may not last that long. The non-Islamist opposition may not relent that easily in their quest to curb what it considers the General’s excesses. In deed, so far, the General is not doing that well.