Thursday, May 31, 2007

At The World Bank, and In Lebanon

The announcement yesterday by US president George W. Bush of his replacement for Mr. Paul D. Wolfowitz at the World Bank may not be the last word that the world will hear in the days ahead about that multi-lateral lending institution, its activities, and governance. The fact that the man, Mr. Robert B. Zoellick, who will replace Mr. Wolfowitz was a principal in the Bush administration during the first term, might still raise a red flag in some quarters where the concern over the radical rightist ideological positions of the Bush presidency is strongest. People, particularly in Europe and at the Bank who hold such concerns may not deem it prudent at this point to express it.

The fact that Mr. Bush and his advisers would still find it difficult to reach beyond the inner circles of their administration to select Mr. Wolfowitz’s replacement even after the turmoil that embroiled his brief stint at the Bank might still be another big cause for worry amongst some of the Bank’s employees, and others elsewhere. Their preference could not have stemmed from the lack of competent Americans who are not directly associated with the Bush White House. There’s certainly an ideological streak to it. In which case, some people would rightly wonder why ideological posturing is more important to the Bush administration than far-reaching and concrete achievements that could stand the test of time at the Bank and in the poor parts of the world where it funds and oversees different projects. The degree to which Mr. Zoellick will attain a successful tour at the Bank will depend a lot on how he plays his hands ideologically. From his initial interviews to reporters, it does seem like he will try to dust up some of the China issues he pursued during his tour as US trade representative. If he does, it will not be lost on the Chinese that his quest will be to check-mate their growing economic reach in the world, but it will still be up to the Chinese to deal with that if and when he gets on their case. He may not get into trouble at the Bank over that. But he will definitely get into trouble if and when he decides to act with imperial impunity.

The approval yesterday at the UN Security Council of a resolution that will establish an international tribunal, which will try those who have been implicated in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister, Mr. Rafik Hariri may likely over-heat politics in Lebanon further. Abstention by China,Russia, Qatar, South Africa, and Indonesia from supporting that resolution and the clarifying statement released by their ambassadors on their countries' decision are proofs of that assertion. The question that must be raised at this time is: Would such over-heating further US interests in Lebanon and the Middle East at this time? Mr. Hariri’s assassination is a cowardly and unconscionable act, but the quest to prosecute those who have been implicated in his assassination right now might not even yield much particularly in a situation that Syria has continued to deny its involvement. They could still be prosecuted, but at a later time.

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Ms. Cindy Sheehan

Anyone who prefers to gloat over the ‘resignation’ of Ms. Cindy Sheehan from the protest campaign she started in August 2005 over the Iraq war after her son Casey, an Army specialist lost his life in an ambush in Baghdad, Iraq the previous year, does not actually understand some of the issues at play in this war and why it hasn’t generated and may not ever generate a de facto protest movement. Going by the angry tone of her blog posting in which she announced her ‘resignation’, it doesn’t even seem like Ms. Sheehan understands some of those issues any better herself.

Ms. Sheehan is obviously distraught over the way the Democrats who won control of the Congress with a slight majority last November approved a no-strings-attached funding for the war last week. One would wish that she understands that her efforts to galvanize America to protest the war in large numbers failed not just because she is not loved by America and its politicians. Or that they do not feel her pain. Love and feeling someone else’s pain are radically different from feeling one’s own pain. It's mostly because only a tiny insignificant number of Americans have suffered a loss like hers.

At the most, even as George W. Bush’s troop surge is still underway, the total number of US troops in Iraq at this point in time does not exceed 160,000. The expectation is that the number will come to about 179,000 when the surge attains a peak. In a country of 300m people, one would not need a fortune teller to conclude that 179,000 soldiers do not constitute a significant proportion of that population. Even if you were to multiply 179,000 by ten and use the quotient to represent the network of family, friends, and peers in the general US population who are connected to the troops serving in Iraq, you will not have difficulty to conclude that such a network is indeed highly confined. There’s no critical mass there at all. The other thing is that because of the present all volunteer force, AVF structure, most Americans do not feel the imminent threat of having a family member, friend, or peer shipping off to Iraq on military service duties. It wouldn’t therefore be illogical to infer that as an AVF, the US military is technically a ‘mercenary’ force that lacks the demographic peculiarities of the society it serves. It is composed in the main of the sons and daughters of poor families from America’s inner cities and the hard-scrubble midlands of America who opted for military service particularly because it seems to be their only ticket out of the grim economic situation that stands in their way in a globalized economy that evaporates well-paying manufacturing jobs to Asia and Latin America, and brings low-paying Walmart-type jobs in return. This military hardly contains and is not meant to attract the children of upper middle class and rich families in great numbers. Most, if not all of what happens in Iraq comes through to the larger society as a story, which is watched on television with the detachment that is associated with Hollywood thrillers. It is therefore because of some of these reasons that this war in Iraq is not like the one that was fought in Vietnam. No matter how long it lasts, no matter how much the casualties mount, it may not hit home as Vietnam did, if at all.

Ms. Sheehan’s greatest undoing in her struggle to rekindle an anti-war movement over the death of her son stems directly from the AVF. The AVF is also George W. Bush’s greatest benefactor in his unflinching resolve to achieve what he calls victory in Iraq. One does not want to be misunderstood, but the harsh truth is that in the light of the AVF, the mounting casualties in Iraq will not even resonate in the larger population sufficiently to threaten political careers in the Congress. Although people are pained by the mounting casualties in Iraq, the pain is still not theirs. That feeling of relative deprivation that stems from Iraq war casualties is still restricted to the handful of grieving parents like Ms. Sheehan who have already lost or who will loose a child in Iraq. These do not in any way imply that the lives that are being lost in Iraq are worthless. One wouldn't go as far as echoing someone who recently opined that given a population of 300m people, those lives are indispensable. It's just that rebellions are not made out of restricted feelings of relative deprivation. There has to be that critical mass, the AVF structure would not allow that critical mass to evolve and coalesce into an anti-war movement.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

The Real Solution

The on-going exhibition at the Cooper-Hewitt National Design Museum in New York that show-cases “a grasp of the depths of world poverty and ingenious ways to attack it” is an eye-opener particularly with the seeming novel ‘inventions’ that are on display. The exhibition is an eye-opener in another but related regard as far as the issue of world poverty and how it can be attacked in Africa is concerned for instance. It’s probably only the starry-eyed Westerners who will quickly presume that the solutions that could emanate from the ‘inventions’ being show-cased at the exhibition would be far-reaching enough to bring about the much-desired dent on world poverty in any culture where some of the inventions are adopted.

This is because some of those ‘inventions’ may not rival some of the age-old methods that villagers in say Africa use to preserve whatever harvests they bring in each year, build durable homes to respond favorably to their tropical environment, etc. without being caught in traps that bind them to the whims and caprice of a Western manufacturer or their failed state structures at home. The items that are featured in the exhibition might look good and trendy, but some of them seem to have the potentials of creating new levels of dependency for the rural dwellers. Take the Lifestraw drinking filter as a case in point. Although it is capable of killing bacteria in the water that is sucked through it, it does raise issues of dignity of use as well as affordability. Stooping down to use it doesn’t seem dignifying at all. Are people supposed to carry it along with them everywhere they go? Where will it be manufactured and fabricated? A device that purifies water from source would be a more appropriate tool for rural African dwellers as far as solving the problem of unhealthy drinking water supply is concerned.

A visit to local universities in Africa will reveal that poverty remains endemic on the continent not because Africans have been incapable of devising credible ways to attach it themselves. The continent’s greatest undoing can be traced to the state structures that plague the lives of its peoples. There was an invention sometime ago at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, which delivered photocopying by capturing solar power. The inventor of that device refused to pitch it for fear that he’d be penalized by jealous individuals in the University administration. In Kenya’s Kenyatta University, professors are being compelled by the University authorities to submit the outcome of their research for vetting prior to submitting it anywhere else for publication. The ploy is to ascertain if they have funding that they University can cream 15% from.

The complexities of poverty in Africa should be properly understood. Westerners who are keen on helping Africans break out of poverty must coordinate their efforts with locals to ensure that they don’t deliver them into another bind altogether.

Monday, May 28, 2007

Over-Kill in Venezuela

Reports today that the oldest privately owned television station in Venezuela has gone off the air for good and has been replaced by a government-owned public station don’t hold well for diversity in that country at all. RCTV has for long incurred the ire of President Hugo Chavez beginning from the time when it sided with the coup that ousted him from power for a brief period of time. But its existence is a necessary element in a society which is striving to attend to the welfare of a vast population of underprivileged citizens. It could serve as a check on reality for the government. Where does Mr. Chavez want the category of Venezuelans whose views are represented by the RCTV to go to? Underground? They will pose a serious danger from underground than they could have ever posed if they were left alone.

There’s no doubt that RCTV is the victim of the ideological tangling which has been going on between Caracas and Washington since that failed attempt to oust Chavez, who believes that the US was involved. Although it is not a secret that there is no love lust between the George W. Bush White House and Mr. Chavez, it doesn’t seem like it is in the interest of international co-existence for either side to be constantly engaged in acts that over heat the hostile relationship between both countries. Chavez has been unrelenting in accusing the US of planning to overthrow his government. Washington has denied that all the way. Proceeding on acts that polarize society in Venezuela will not in any way amount to long-term good. The government has the resources to counter whatever propaganda that the owners of RCTV are capable of inflicting on Venezuelan society. Compelling the station to go off air by refusing to renew its license is an over kill. One would have hoped that Chavez and his government were more realistic and reasonable.

Sunday, May 27, 2007

It's Still About the Palestinian Question

It may not be so, but the fact that another high intensity war has broken out in Lebanon almost a year after the one that broke out between Hezbollah and Israel last summer is sufficient cause to infer that the present conflict between the Lebanese army and Fatah al-Islam fighters in the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared, near the Lebanese port city of Tripoli might be the continuation of last summer’s war this time by proxy. Logic for this inference is made stronger when one factors the speed with which weapons and other military supplies have been arranged for and flown from the US and some Arab sources to the Lebanese army in the equation. There could be other indicators that support this inference.

However, what I think is the main issue at play here is that both violent flare-ups derive from the unresolved Palestinian question. Some people, including elements in the coalition government in Lebanon will dispute that there’s a link between the current flare-up involving Islam al-Fatah and the Lebanese army, and the Palestinian question. Such elements will back their argument up by saying that Islam al-Fatah is composed of fighters from the Arab world including Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Syria. In fact, authorities in Lebanon have already asserted that Islam al-Fatah is Syria’s proxy, even though Syria has denied having anything to do with the group.

The leader of Islam al-Fatah is a Palestinian, even though the group does not seem to have popular support amongst Palestinian refugees in Lebanon who number an estimated 400,000. Islam al-Fatah, which even some elements in the Lebanese authorities acknowledge lacks links to al-Qaeda could not have settled so easily in Lebanon if there were no Palestinian refugee camps. The circumstances that created the camps in the first instance, and the agreement between Lebanon and other Arabs that prohibits the Lebanese army from entering the Palestinian refugee camps are some of the variables that aid and abet the likes of the current flare-up. Islam al-Fatah will have no sanctuary if there no refugee camps. Apart from 33 Lebanese soldiers, 27 Islam al-Fatah militants, 18 Palestinian civilians are included in the number of lives lost so far in the fight.

Not withstanding how the current flare-up, which elements in the Lebanese coalition government, the Hezbollah, and other stakeholders in the area agree would not require a military solution, is resolved, it will not be the last. Rushing military supplies to the Lebanese army is therefore misplaced. The more logical option will be to fashion out a just resolution of the Palestinian question. That resolution which could have been realized the day before yesterday will save the world the continuing bloodshed in that part of the world.

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Sanity in Zimbabwe At Last

At last, it seems that sanity is about to prevail in Zimbabwe between Mr. Robert Mugabe’s regime and its opponents in the two factions of the MDC. There are indications that both stakeholders in the crisis that stem from Mr. Mugabe’s misrule of the country are beginning to engage each other in South Africa-brokered talks behind the scene. Although the talks do not involve prominent regime and MDC elements at this time, the fact that they are taking place at all is cause for hope. The MDC has obviously become more realistic particularly by putting aside its unrealistic demand that Mr. Mugabe must first acknowledge that he is an illegitimate president before it would accept to talk to him.

Considering the circumstances under which he emerged as president in all the elections that have taken place in Zimbabwe since his misrule triggered the current opposition from the MDC, no one is saying that the issue of Mr. Mugabe’s illegitimacy as Zimbabwe’s president is devoid of logic. What one is saying is that considering the weaknesses that riddle the MDC and the fact that the objective conditions in both Zimbabwe and the sub-region would not be conducive for the kind of armed resistance that some elements in the MDC might prefer to adopt against Mr. Mugabe’s regime, digging deep and firm on the demand for Mr. Mugabe to acknowledge the obvious before talks is not only unrealistic, but is also foolish. That demand is foolish because it will at best achieve the opposite by buying Mr. Mugabe the time to foment more intransigence, adopt more repressive tactics against the opposition even as he continues to ruin Zimbabwe in every sense of the word.

Talks between the MDC and the regime will open the necessary avenues for the eventual resolution of the crisis. Zimbabwe has been ruined enough already. The time to begin its resuscitation can no longer be shifted. Let the talks continue.

Friday, May 25, 2007

How About Nigeria?

As the people of Pakistan get increasingly restive in their protest against the dictator, General Pervez Musharraf who has straddled their political landscape since he kicked out the last nominal democratic government in their country, alarms are increasingly being sounded in some US print media channels to warn the policy makers in the US foreign policy establishment of the dangers ahead. Suggestions are clearly on the side of reigning in the general at least if not nudging him towards an alternative which will usher in another nominal democratic government that will include his secular opponents. Although, it shouldn’t have gotten to this point, but it’s unfortunate that the foreign policy establishment gets US foreign policy into this kind of situation every time and again for reasons that clearly boil down to short-sightedness.

Nigeria is one country that has continuously stumbled through an endless transition as a result of the over-bearing influence of short-sighted US foreign policy. Rather than take sides with the people in their quest to resolve the issues that emanate from unfinished state building, US foreign policy prefers to take sides with interests and actors in the country that spawn instability. US support to install and sustain Mr. Olusegun Obasanjo as president in 1999 was obviously the direct cause of the madness that gripped him over the last eight years. The initial promise for responsiveness he showed in 1999 simply varnished almost immediately when he realized that the US would help him reign in the military to render it incapable of intervening in the political process through coups. The immediate outcome of that was that he went on a field day that translated to running the country into the dust literally. That madness got the greater part of him to the degree that he proclaimed himself a messiah and stated to plot to succeed himself as his second term was about to come to an end. When his desires in that regard couldn’t materialize, he embarked on the project to self-anoint his successor. He schemed and scammed and manipulated the electoral process much to the chagrin of the many at home and in the international who condemned the stage-managed charade that took place in April in the name of elections in Nigeria.

Although, he successfully produced a winner-beneficiary from that manipulated process in the person of Mr. Umar Yar’Ardua, there is no doubt that Mr. Obasanjo has saddled Nigeria with yet another crisis which will consume the attention of everyone even as the country continues on the path of economic degeneration. It didn’t have to be that. Genuine democratic progress that will never undermine US interests is still possible in Nigeria. That alternative can only be realized by lending support to Nigeria’s political actors who are basically keen on resolving the question of state building amongst the nationalities that colonialism made to constitute Nigeria once and for all. Such actors abound in Nigeria, and Chief Anthony Enahoro is the most prominent of all of them. Bringing him close and consulting him will be the beginning of that genuine democratic progress.